Release #: Vol. 84, No. 6
August 01, 2015

Airline Pilot Shortage: Myth, Facts & Solutions

By Jan W. Steenblik, Technical Editor

Experts agree: The U.S. pilot supply “shortage” is really a pilot pay, benefits, and career path shortage. That’s the major takeaway from the “Airline Pilot Shortage? Myths, Facts, and Solutions” conference that ALPA sponsored on June 25 in collaboration with the University Aviation Association.

More than 100 ALPA pilots, government agency representatives, regional airline managements, educators, pilot trainers, and other interested stakeholders attended the conference in northern Virginia; another 350 watched via live webcast and submitted questions to panelists electronically.

Capt. Paul Ryder (ExpressJet), ALPA’s Fee-for-Departure Committee chairman and national resource coordinator, emceed the day-long event.

Capt. Tim Canoll, ALPA’s president, declared, “Some airlines are experiencing difficulty in hiring and retaining qualified pilots. ALPA’s been very vocal: It comes down to simple economics. When airlines offer an average starting salary of only $23,000 a year, the market will respond accordingly.

“We spoke up primarily to respond to claims that the FAA’s new pilot training and qualification requirements fabricated a ‘pilot shortage.’ Some also claim that a pilot shortage forced airlines to reduce flights.

“The number of pilots who could work in the industry,” Canoll observed, “significantly exceeds the number of job openings in the U.S. Some pilots are not willing to accept the compensation offered by some airlines—especially when they don’t see a clear career path at that airline.

“This conference is about collaboration and moving forward together.”

Capt. Carl Davis, chief pilot with The Boeing Company, detailed Boeing’s forecast that, between 2014 and 2033, half a million additional airline pilots would be needed worldwide. Some 88,000 of those will be needed in the U.S.

Pathways to the cockpit

Capt. Charles Hogeman (United), ALPA’s air safety chairman, moderated a panel on the various pathways to an airline cockpit.

Col. Juan Narvid, chief of the Department of Defense’s NextGen Lead Service Office, U.S. Air Force, outlined the current structure and process that his service uses to train and develop Air Force aviators.

Dr. Becky Lutte, assistant professor at the University of Nebraska–Omaha’s Aviation Institute, said, “The restricted ATP, for collegiate pilots, is a game changer.” A recent study, she said, showed the effect of the first officer qualifications rule on college flight students: Of 820 respondents, 8 percent said they no longer plan to fly for the airlines; another 28 percent are rethinking their career plans. “Their priorities were ‘show me the money,’ followed by quality of life, then a pathway to the majors.”

From a collegiate perspective, Lutte said, solutions include (1) financing options for training, (2) developing pipeline programs (including in high schools), and (3) “focusing the conversation on the positive—pay is coming up, everyone is hiring, so upgrades are happening, and six regional airlines now have first-year pay, when bonuses are included, greater than $30,000.”

Steve Brown, chief operating officer of the National Business Aircraft Association and chairman of Aviation Accreditation Board International, said furloughs often drive airline pilots into business aviation, which he characterized as “a buffering element” in the overall aviation “ecosystem.” He added, “This is a great time to enter the industry…[but] we need a more dependable pipeline.”

Paul Woessner, director of business development for ATP Flight School, called the alleged pilot shortage “a student loan shortage.” Flight students, he said, have “severely limited student loan options,” and most lenders view financing pilot training as “toxic.” He added that the European Aviation Safety Agency has made it easier for U.S. pilots to obtain a European pilot certificate, “so the 1,500-hour rule has created a whole new pool for foreign airlines to fish in.”

Generation Z

Keynote speaker Nicole Barrette, a training and licensing specialist with the International Civil Aviation Organization, talked about pilot supply from a global perspective.

The hard questions, she said, include “What essential service does an airline pilot deliver?” and “What makes a good pilot, and how do you describe it?”

Barrette noted, “We need to understand how the next generation of pilots is wired.” She explained that members of Generation Z, born 1995–2010 (20 percent of the U.S. and Canadian populations), grew up in a period of economic and political instability, are very acutely aware of environmental issues, and are truly global citizens.

ROI

Ryder moderated a panel on return on investment (ROI) in flight training.

Dr. Kenneth Byrnes, chairman of the Flight Department of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU), reported that a large number of students at ERAU never start flight training because of a low ROI. About 65 percent of pilot training entrants complete the four-year ERAU flight training program, but many drop out because of the cost.

Comparing the average income of pilots versus aeronautical engineers, Byrnes said that engineers earn higher salaries initially, but pilots do later; the crossover point is at 13–14 years. However, he added, “If you look at the time value of money, the pilot doesn’t catch up with the engineer until year 27.”

Janelle Kilgore, director of student financial aid at the University of North Dakota, said that UND in-state flight students pay, on average, $131,000 for their four-year degree; out-of-state students, $175,000.

Kilgore recommended continuing to grow scholarships and developing federal public service loans that include loan forgiveness similar to that given to doctors who serve small communities after completing their medical education.

Alex Marren, chief operating officer of ExpressJet, asserted, “We are definitely seeing a pilot shortage.… In the regional airline industry, we’re proud of the fact that about 65 percent of our pilots go on to the majors.” She noted that ExpressJet has more than 70 pilots in its Ambassador Program who “go out and recruit people into aviation.”

Capt. Bill Couette, ALPA’s vice president–administration/secretary, has flown for 34 years, 27 of those in the regional airline industry. “Today,” Couette observed, “even the turboprops are sophisticated, complex aircraft. I can take off in a regional jet at O’Hare and land in Santa Barbara—is that really a ‘regional’ airline operation?

“If we want to make this profession attractive,” he declared, “it really boils down to pay.”

Success stories

F/O Justin Dahan (PSA), vice chairman of ALPA’s Education Committee, moderated a panel on which several ALPA members—F/O Iyob Makonnen (Delta), F/O Alice McCormack (ExpressJet), Capt. Eric Kronenberger (PSA), F/O Faye Matthews (United), and Capt. Steve Gillen (United)—recounted their individual journeys to airline cockpits. All but Gillen, the United pilots’ Master Executive Council executive administrator and a U.S. Air Force Academy graduate, took the college and civilian flight training route.

Dahan asked what universal characteristics can be gleaned from these success stories.

Makonnen offered, “Being focused, determined, and prepared to take advantage of opportunities when they come along.”

McCormack added, “Don’t expect that it’s going to be a smooth ride.”

From left, F/O Justin Dahan (PSA), F/O Iyob Makonnen (Delta), F/O Alice McCormack (ExpressJet), Capt. Eric Kronenberger (PSA), F/O Faye Matthews (United), and Capt. Steve Gillen (United) took different paths to airline cockpits, but all were focused, determined, and prepared to advance their careers.

Build it—they will come

In closing, Ryder observed, “ALPA’s view on the ROI question can be summarized as, ‘If you build it—i.e., a strong pilot career—they will come.’

“Pilot career progression is important; starting salaries alone don’t tell the whole story. For many pilots, the first airline job—flying for a regional—can last a long time, and some never make it to the major airlines. To improve pilot supply, employers should build strong career opportunities in house, rather than being content to serve as steppingstones to larger airlines.”

Of the ALPA members who told their success stories, Ryder noted, “They came to airline flying from different backgrounds and via different paths, but they all had a passion for aviation. Becoming an airline pilot is certainly something those with the right skill set can do. The challenge for us is to remove obstacles that may keep others with ‘the right stuff’ from realizing their dreams.”

This article is from the August 2015 issue of Air Line Pilot magazine, the Official Journal of the Air Line Pilots Association, International—a monthly publication for all ALPA members.

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