Pilot Commentary: Locate Your Nearest Brexit Sign
By Capt. Don Wykoff (Delta), ALPA International Affairs Committee Chairman
The United Kingdom’s historic decision on June 23 to leave the European Union could profoundly affect the international airline industry. Given that the UK’s exit is without precedent, myriad possibilities exist as to what happens next.
While there are many unknowns for the industry in the future, one thing is certain: ALPA will continue to defend North American airline workers and a fair marketplace.
The EU has roots in the aftermath of World War II, when in 1951 the leaders of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and West Germany signed the Treaty of Paris and founded the European Coal and Steel Community. In the post-war era, the goal of the six country leaders was to unite Europe economically and politically and create lasting peace.
In 1957, the Treaty of Rome created the European Economic Community, which would later be renamed the European Community. It established a common market to allow people, products, services, and capital to move among the European states as if in a single country. The European Union was created when the Maastricht Treaty entered into force on Nov. 1, 1993, and the UK became a member later the same year.
The EU has its own Parliament that sets its own rules in an enormous range of areas, including air transportation. The primary agreements that affect aviation in North America are the U.S.–EU Air Transport Agreement and the Canada–EU Air Transport Agreement.
The watchword of the day is “uncertainty.” As a first step, the UK will need to determine the timing and terms of how it will remove itself from a complex political and economic EU partnership that currently includes 28 countries.
In order for the UK to leave the EU, it will need to activate Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which was designed to streamline EU institutions to make the partnership more democratic, transparent, and efficient. Passed in late 2009 but never invoked until now, Article 50 allows the UK and the EU two years to agree to the terms of a separation. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reportedly said that she will not initiate the Article 50 process before 2017, but she is under pressure from some to activate the legal mechanism sooner.
Because Article 50 has never been set in motion, no one knows precisely how the process will work or how long it will take. Some predict that the UK could formally end its relationship with the EU by the end of 2018, while others suggest it could take up to a decade because the terms could potentially require agreement by all 28 member state parliaments.
Once it exits the EU, the UK will likely need to renegotiate air service agreements with the United States and Canada. Many options exist for what such air service agreements might look like—the UK could create a bilateral agreement with each of the two countries, the UK could draw up a memorandum of understanding or bridge agreement, or air service could be included as part of a much larger umbrella free trade agreement that covers a range of areas.
While experts debate the ultimate economic effect of the UK’s plan to exit the EU, there is little doubt that the situation is extraordinarily complex. Some major U.S. airlines have a strong presence in the United Kingdom, while others hold joint-venture agreements with UK airlines, and North American airlines’ access to slots at Heathrow Airport remains critical.
In this context, however, there appears to be broad consensus among those, including ALPA, who are in touch with government officials on both sides of the Atlantic that the UK is likely to seek to maintain at least the status quo with both the United States and Canada to keep international passenger and cargo flight operations moving smoothly.
